Conduct date Sep 15, 2026
Institutional Risk Watch · Comparative research
Institutional & Economic Early-Warning Dashboard
A continuously updated evidence watch above a QA-reviewed comparative score.
Latest validated watch
Latest source dateLatest validated update · Site v0.3.80
Refined W063 with trader-reported Orlen alternative crude sourcing, W040 with a separate UNHCR displacement series and Egyptian–Saudi navigation language, W064 with active protective works at three Polish border crossings and W037 with the president's response to the ballot-mail stay denial; the automatic visual edition treatment also advances with this website version.
- Hourly
- Research watch 80 items in transparent review
- Daily check
- Publication After 9:00 AM ETPublishes only when a newer validated version exists
- Event-triggered
- Shock review None activeHourly review through Sep 15, 2026
- Monthly
- Audited scores September 2026 Monthly Release v1.1
Since the latest audited snapshot
76 newer watch items are visible now
New evidence appears here before it changes a score. Each item remains unscored until its source, mechanism, comparability, and persistence pass review.
Conduct date Sep 15, 2026
Lithuania reports NATO air-policing jets shot down an unidentified drone in its airspace near Pratkūnai, the first such interception reported in the country
Reported by Sep 14, 2026
Denmark reports that a Russian frigate fired two flares toward a Danish Fennec helicopter during routine photography in international waters off Gedser; one passed close
Current case file
Target case · Starting quality: High / consolidated
GREEN 0–24YELLOW 25–44ORANGE 45–64RED 65–100
Audited baseline48.5ORANGESnapshot Aug 31, 2026
Change from 2024 model benchmark 15.43 pillars at or above 60
Evidence coverage90%13 dated 2026 events in the release
Current shock overlayOFFReviewed Sep 15, 2026 · 0 of 12 active
Current combined signal48.5ORANGE
Country coverage
12 current scored cases + 24 additional historical calibration nations
The additional nations requested in the research design are included in the historical backtest register. They are not assigned current scores until a canonical country record and monthly series pass comparable-data QA.
- Current scored cases
- 12
- Historical nations
- 36
- Country-episodes
- 43
Additional historical calibration nations
BelizeChileColombiaCzechiaDominican RepublicEcuadorGhanaGreeceIndonesiaItalyKenyaLibyaMalaysiaNepalNicaraguaNigeriaPakistanPeruPhilippinesSomaliaSouth AfricaSpainTunisiaUruguay
Calculation record
United States: weighted baseline
B = 0.15D + 0.15L + 0.15M + 0.075A + 0.125E + 0.10C + 0.10I + 0.15F
| Code | Pillar | Weight | Score | Weighted points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D | Executive constraints | 15.0% | 25.0 | 3.75 |
| L | Rule of law | 15.0% | 31.9 | 4.78 |
| M | Information, media and civic space | 15.0% | 25.0 | 3.75 |
| A | Academic/intellectual freedom | 7.5% | 22.0 | 1.65 |
| E | Executive economic intervention | 12.5% | 84.2 | 10.52 |
| C | Corruption/favoritism | 10.0% | 50.0 | 5.00 |
| I | Immigration/coercive state | 10.0% | 80.5 | 8.05 |
| F | Financial/speculative fragility | 15.0% | 73.1 | 10.96 |
| Published baseline | 48.5 | |||
0.15 × 25.0 + 0.15 × 31.9 + 0.15 × 25.0 + 0.075 × 22.0 + 0.125 × 84.2 + 0.1 × 50.0 + 0.1 × 80.5 + 0.15 × 73.1 = 48.5
2024 model benchmark + monthly series
United States: baseline trajectory
Comparative register
Current country-by-pillar matrix
Select any row to open its calculation record above.
| Country | D | L | M | A | E | C | I | F | Baseline | Δ model 2024 | Shock | Total | Signal | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RussiaMechanism-only comparator | 93.8 | 93.8 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 75.0 | 90.0 | 63.0 | 89.1 | 3.0 | OFF | 89.1 | RED | 80% |
| VenezuelaEntrenched state/economic-control case | 97.0 | 93.8 | 91.7 | 75.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 85.0 | 65.0 | 88.7 | 1.2 | OFF | 88.7 | RED | 80% |
| TürkiyeLong decline / qualified democracy | 77.8 | 89.6 | 75.0 | 75.0 | 75.0 | 75.0 | 60.0 | 60.5 | 73.9 | 2.2 | OFF | 73.9 | RED | 85% |
| El SalvadorEmergency-power acceleration | 75.0 | 81.3 | 75.0 | 50.0 | 55.0 | 100.0 | 60.0 | 54.1 | 69.4 | 5.9 | OFF | 69.4 | RED | 80% |
| MexicoInstitutional restructuring | 50.0 | 75.0 | 41.7 | 25.0 | 45.0 | 75.0 | 55.0 | 41.1 | 51.7 | 3.0 | OFF | 51.7 | ORANGE | 80% |
| United StatesTarget case | 25.0 | 31.9 | 25.0 | 22.0 | 84.2 | 50.0 | 80.5 | 73.1 | 48.5 | 15.4 | OFF | 48.5 | ORANGE | 90% |
| IndiaElectoral democracy under strain | 25.0 | 56.3 | 41.7 | 54.1 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 59.1 | 33.0 | 44.6 | 3.0 | OFF | 44.6 | YELLOW | 85% |
| HungaryEntrenched backsliding / recovery test | 43.3 | 32.2 | 39.8 | 50.0 | 65.0 | 46.3 | 30.0 | 38.5 | 42.6 | 2.7 | OFF | 42.6 | YELLOW | 85% |
| BrazilRecovery / resilience case | 22.0 | 50.0 | 33.3 | 0.0 | 35.0 | 50.0 | 45.0 | 49.7 | 37.1 | 0.9 | OFF | 37.1 | YELLOW | 85% |
| ArgentinaContemporary uncertainty / policy stress test | 25.0 | 31.3 | 16.7 | 3.0 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 25.0 | 62.5 | 34.3 | 2.0 | OFF | 34.3 | YELLOW | 80% |
| PolandRecovery case | 25.0 | 31.3 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 20.0 | 33.9 | 26.8 | 0.4 | OFF | 26.8 | YELLOW | 85% |
| South KoreaAcute stress / resilience case | 12.5 | 18.8 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 10.0 | 25.0 | 20.0 | 45.1 | 22.8 | 6.2 | OFF | 22.8 | GREEN | 85% |
D Executive constraints · L Rule of law · M Information/media · A Academic freedom · E Executive economic intervention · C Corruption/favoritism · I Immigration/coercive effects · F Financial/speculative fragility.
Research updates
Follow new releases and methodology notes
Occasional updates only. Dashboard access never requires an email address.